Mary Meeker Speaks Out On Amazon

It looks like Mary Meeker, Wall Street's most influential tech analyst, is touting the first mover and other advantages driving Amazon.com's successes that I've been criticized for believing as a shareholder since 1998. Today she said,
"AMZN reported C1Q00 revenue of $574MM (up 95% Y/Y, down 15% Q/Q in a seasonally weak quarter), ahead of our estimate of $541MM. Gross profits were $128MM, with a gross margin of 22.3%, ahead of our 19.5% estimate. Operating loss was $99MM, better than our $105MM estimate, and significantly better than the $175MM loss in C4Q99. Operating EPS of $(0.35) was better than our estimate and the First Call mean of $(0.36). We believe that C4Q99 was AMZN's worst quarter in terms of operating loss, and the key thing to watch for going forward is improvement relative to that performance. That said, we are encouraged by the C1Q results -- operating loss declining $76MM Q/Q to $99MM -- although we do not believe AMZN is out of the woods yet. A key challenge for AMZN going forward will be reducing operating losses Q/Q as a percent of revenue and in absolute terms. Two customer lifetime value indicators improved nicely in C1Q. 1) Trailing 12-month sales per active customer (one who purchased during the past 12 months) was $121, up from $116 in C4Q99 and $107 in C1Q99. The success of AMZN's long term business model is highly dependent on increased wallet share, and we believe we're starting to see the first signs of this. 2) Customer acquisition costs (sales and marketing expenses, excluding fulfillment, divided by new customer adds) declined from $19 in C4Q99 to $13 in C1Q. Note that these costs are among the lowest of any major Internet commerce company and demonstrate the power of AMZN's brand and first-mover advantage. AMZN's position is one that few e-commerce companies will ever be able to achieve.

Nextel at $10 Is A Bargain

(Disclosure: Author owns NXTL securities) 90 days ago, Wall Street consensus put Nextel's 2003 earnings at -$.26 per share. 60 days ago? -$.06 per share. 30 days ago? $.01 per share. 7 days ago? $.11 per share. Today? $.32 per share. The #5 U.S. Wireless provider's 10.3 million customers and its #1 customer growth rate imply its passing #4 Sprint PCS is almost a given during the next few months. While Sprint PCS shrunk last quarter and Verizon's growth is slowing, Nextel has been adding over 100,000 customers per month. It's churn rate (2% customer loss per month) is the lowest in the industry, solidifying it's long-term market share gains. More good news. Nextel is the only major service with one button "walkie talkie" direct connect services that come free to most customers. Customer service ratings are improving, and its network of independent dealers is bloodying the nose of competitors--particularly Sprint PCS. Nextel brags the top spot with corporate customers are businesses who sign up scores of employees and don't churn easily. Nextel's $71 average revenue per customer per month is 30% higher the industry average. In 2003, I feel that Nextel consensus number will continue to rise above $.50 per share, giving it a current multiple just north of 20 times 2003 earnings. It's not a stock without its risks, so an inexpensive protective put may be a good idea for large positions. I am looking for a rise 50% to 100% over the next 12 months. Investor's Business Daily's Reinhardt Krause summed it up best, "Nextel, which focuses on business customers rather than consumers, added 480,000 net subscribers in the third quarter. That's about par with the year-earlier quarter. The company is doing better than most other U.S. carriers. No. 2 Cingular Wireless and Sprint PCS both lost customers in the third quarter, and subscriber growth at AT&T Wireless fell 73%."

Satellite Radio Starting to Take Off

Is it possible to find a fast-growing, strengthening, subscriber-based business in these troubled times? Barron's says that XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) is ready to deliver faster than expected subscriber growth--and I think they have got it right. I will be adding a couple thousand shares to my portfolio now that its leadership and funding has been clearly established. Sure enough, the company beat its own estimate for new subscribers this quarter. It's competitor, Sirius (SIRI) suffered a blow when the world's largest automaker, General Motors, chose to use XM satellite radio exclusively. Honda and others have also joined XMSR, propelling it to grow much faster than the weakened SIRI, who may not even be able to hang onto its supply deal with Ford, and may not be viable as a standalone business. Sirius (SIRI) has some 'serious' problems--it offers fewer channels and fewer options to subscribers, and is just not picking up momentum in revenue or new subscribers. XM needs about 3 million subscribers to breakeven, and has already exceeded the 500,000 mark in just a few short months. Consensus (although only few are covering the stock) estimates about one million subs at year end. I believe this number will come in around 1.3 to 1.5 million, given the accelerating dominance over its only weakening competitor, the cheap ad environment, as well as the growing non-auto and rural user base XMSR is executing by lowering subscriber acquisition costs, hitting faster than expected subscriber growth, and by having secured a competitive dominance that will be extremely difficult to displace. I feel the stock has some significant risk, but will likely hit $12 or more in the next 12 months--double its current price. The increased analyst attention to the emergence of a winner will follow as XMSR will continue to exceed revenue and subscriber estimates.

Our Weaker Dollar

Everybody is talking about the Euro rising above the dollar. As I have continued to actively pursue opportunities in U.S. and international capital markets over the last 12 months, I have noticed an eye-popping 24% decline of the dollar vis-a-vis the Euro. Basic economics, which I remember getting drilled into me years ago by BYU's famed Dr. Kearl, teaches us that an orderly decline of our currency usually causes U.S. exports (and has actually done so) to decline in price, and therefore increase in volume to the full extent of the dollar's decline. Assuming Ceterus Paribus (this is a surreal condition referred to by economists that means if all others but this one variable remain equal), Dell, Caterpillar, Coca Cola, GE, Boeing, and Alcoa now can undercut their European counterparts by 24% in price without cutting a red cent from their dollar prices and profits. Now, if the dollar were to experience a series of large rapid shocks to the upside or downside, that would rattle confidence of foreign investors. Any large, rapid swings would be harmful. However, the decline thus far has been very orderly--not a single 24 hour period on my charts have shown any kind of volatile moves. It would be foolish to compare the 1% per day moves of dollar/Euro exchange rates to the wild moves that are seen in trading the currencies of Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Russia, and so on. The dollar is still the most widely held currency in the world and has attached to it the 227 year perfect credit rating of the U.S. treasury, along with a Fed and Economic system that are the envy of the world. What was Sadaam carrying in his spiderhole? Ben Franklins. Ben Franklin is simply retracing some of the gains of recent years in a very rational way, and a single Euro go to $1.30 or $1.40 (up from $1.26 this morning) if the clueless guys in the Bundesbank don't pull it together and cut their lofty interest rates to boost their stumbling, overregulated, socialist European economy. The dollar's decline has actually been a net positive for our trade deficit AND America's small and large businesses who export to Europe. What we've seen over the last 12 months is a relatively modest realignment of currency that is perfectly appropriate, given the silly resistance of the European Central Bank to keep its interest rate more than double that of the U.S. My experience with foreign currency markets over the past couple years has taught me that relatively low interest rates (real interest rates are those adjusted for inflation), or the anticipation thereof, will almost always mean a depreciating currency valuations. Are we witnessing the downfall of the U.S. currency? Is the world pulling everything out of the United States'? Nope. The noise is no more than pundits who are looking for a news story. The ones who should be worrying are the Europeans, whose export sector has been slapped by the surging Euro. The Euro is a more colorful currency than our dollar, by the way. So, no, the Greenback is not in trouble. It just means that we may have to put up with a few more French tourists spending their funny, colorful bills in America. On a personal note, I am pleased to say that Smartstocks.com has entered its sixth year of operation. I am so pleased to be part of a team that survived the dot com phase. I want to thank you all so much for you continued support these last five years, and for making my idea and my dream as a college senior in 1998 become reality. Be sure to watch out for our newsletter, coming out soon. Please note my email address has changed, and I will be taking your questions and emails once again when the newsletter is in place.

UCLA Economists Warn of "Housing Bubble"

True, California is the land of fruits and nuts. But the Wall Street Journal is reporting that this particular group of Californians—specifically, a batch of UCLA economists—announced this month that the U.S. and most distinctly California are “beset by a housing ‘bubble’ that will depress construction next year” and will not return to 2004 levels for years to come. Now we all have a healthy skepticism when Phd’s start predicting things, don’t we? And we should. However, this particular group of fruits and nuts has got it right. Why do I say that? The same group was one of the first to predict the 2001 recession. And, once again, history is on their side. Let’s take a walk through history. Some of you who have read my column since I first opened Smartstocks.com in 1998. Suffice it to say that I know something about bubbles—about euphoria and overvaluation of an asset class. First, some common sense observations…very unscientific, but quite meaningful if you have learned the hard lessons of investing history as I have. Then we wrap up with the facts and data and you can email me and tell me if you think these guys are right in saying that U.S. housing returns have peaked and certain areas are wildly overvalued in December 2004. As a stockbroker at Merrill Lynch in 1999 and 2000, I was a member of an army of 15,000 who was trained to shrug off the notion that we were in a bubble. I had more than quadrupled my little portfolio on the internet, as many did. It seemed everybody knew that technology couldn’t go down. Tech IPOs went up 500% their first day on the market. “This is a new economy. Only idiots can’t see how new technology is never going away. It’s different this time.” The most dangerous words in investing are “guaranteed returns” and “It’s different this time.” I bought it, and so did 80 million other Americans who happily leapt into the stock market. Only a handful of major players called it a bubble, in writing, between January 1999 and January 2000, when the NASDAQ almost doubled in one year. Ironically, it was really only those investment advisors tenured long enough to have passed through the energy bubble of the early 1980s or the LA housing bubble of the early 1990s. Between March 2000 and March 2003, I learned a hard lesson. The Nasdaq went from 5100 to just over 1000 in 36 months. Being all of 24 years old with two years of above-market returns gave me enough overconfidence to miss some red flags. Talk about eating crow. I lost most of my life savings. I made lemons out of lemonade, getting an MBA, doing the CFA exams, put on the hindsight-learning goggles, running small businesses, and hitting reset button on my investment philosophy. With the grace of god and the power of options leverage, I am one of the fortunate ones who was able to climb his way back above pre-bubble levels in the last year, even though the Nasdaq could take until 2009 or 2010 just to recover its losses and to regain that notorious 5,000 level. But oh, to have seen the writing on the wall. I think it’s fair to say I know something about bubbles. Red Flag #1: Historically Abnormal Returns. Over the last seven months, I have flown back and forth between the Bay Area in California and my anonymous red state. Somehow, I got stuck next to, behind, in front of, or across from a real estate nut on every single one of those flights. High fives are followed by long stories. Everyone in California has heard the same phrase this year umpteen times in Calfornia, “My friend____ bought a house ____ months ago, and she’s already made ____ thousand dollars.” First, she hasn’t made a penny until she sells it and counts her cash in the bank, net of her 3-6% realtor fees, and taxes. Second, most Americans have refinanced, cashed out, and spent over 50% of their home equity for the first time since World War II. History doesn’t lie…and it gets worse in the hyper-speculative, overbought markets like LA and San Francisco. In the Bay Area of California, local media now reports that over 70% of new loans are adjustable rate mortgages…what happens when all those adjustables ADJUST from 4.0% on average to their historical average floating rate of 7 or 8%? Some Bay Area families are rich enough to pay double their current mortgage payment, but how many of them won’t flinch when their mortgage payment doubles? Remember the crazy uncle who told you to buy Yahoo at $200 in 1999? Where the hell is he now? He’s buying up a slew of plain-vanilla, two bedroom condos like the one I scouted in San Francisco for the bargain price $750,000. I watched the bidders actually fight over the damn thing until the price went up so high, it exceeded the bid price by $30,000. Does any of this sound familiar to you? People fighting to get in a bid on a house and saying things like, “we better move fast, or the price will just go higher next year.” Red Flag #2: Housing costs in Bubble Areas Exceed Wage Differences. “But the wages are higher here…San Francisco is never going away, baby…and besides…I can make the payment.” True, I just bought a nice two bedroom condo near Salt Lake City for $92,000, and priced out a similar one near Denver for $170,000. Do San Fran jobs pay ten times the wage in Salt Lake City or five times? Assume wages are 40% to 50% higher in San Fran vs. Salt Lake or Denver. They are all little starter homes, almost exactly the same. The national average for a two bedroom condo with 1200 square feet is between $100 and $150 per square foot. Yet in Malibu and San Francisco, they are paying $550, $650, $750 per square foot on average and even more in the posh zip codes of California. Bond ratings are boring to most people, but California’s state debt has been down graded by every major firm that rates debt to the lowest rating of any U.S. state. In other words, in the unanimous chorus of the bond market, California’s is the less likely to continuously pay its debts by creating new businesses, jobs and tax revenue than Wyoming, Vermont, or any other state in the country. It’s a new topic for a new day, but California’s soaring debt, punitive taxes, and anti-business wacko regulations have caused businesses to flee at the rate of 500 to 5,000 small businesses per month, depending on whose numbers you read. Who is left to sell these $750,000 condos to in 2005 in San Francisco? 30 year fixed mortgage rates, according to Economy.com should rise from this week’s rate of 5.3% to 6.5% in 2005, then to 7.5% in 2006. Red Flag #3: Investor and Media Euphoria. “It’s a real asset. People are always going to want a nice house in (Vegas, Malibu, San Fran)!” It’s true. Those are posh areas with great weather and night life. Not nice enough, however, to avoid the inevitable laws of supply and demand. The average home in Las Vegas went up 54% in the last twelve months, more than ten times the return on a 10 year U.S. Treasury bond. Those types of returns are simply not sustainable and it is only a matter of time. I don’t know when, but I know how a bubble deflates. It deflates painlessly and slowly during the first year, because the losses are small and not noticeable. Stubborn money even buys more, and passes it off as a buying opportunity. Does that sound familiar? In 2000, for example, a lot of people blamed mild losses on Al Gore and the election recount and ignored calls to sell amidst what we now know was the “gentle beginning” of the bubble’s burst. Imagine if only one of ten prospective homeowners decides to hold off for better rates or better prices or a better job in a market where homebuilders have years’ worth of inventory on sale or already under construction. Can housing prices go down and stay down in pretty areas with great weather? Ask the poor folks who bought a home in Southern California, for instance, in 1990. It took seven years for the average home to simply climb back to its pre-bubble levels. After 3% inflation, buying and selling at the same cost means these millions of homeowners lost over 15% of their mula, while the stock market doubled. To be fair, housing prices are less volatile than stock market indexes. Also, a house has the intrinsic value that a stock doesn’t—you can live in it, as long as you pay the mortgage and property taxes on time. However, housing prices are not as steady as you might think. You just can’t see the volatility because it’s not traded every day on an exchange and announced every night on the news. Long-term U.S. average housing has gone up around 4% to 6% per year since World War II. Take out 3% for average inflation, and a bit for property tax, and you can expect a modest 1 to 3% real return annually. In short, most markets will crawl back to average housing appreciation rates, while hot markets like California will navigate through a bear market that is already staring, then will likely stagnate for a couple years before the interest rates give these areas a painful end to a decline that could last 4 to 6 years in San Fran and LA, in my view. The deflating bubblets in these areas will experience only slow declines for the next 12 months…nothing bad…until that mortgage rate gets high enough to make the average buyer worker say, “no thanks, we’ll just have to wait for now.” Then, probably sometime in 2006 or 2007, 30 year fixed rates will rise above the critical 7% and 7.5% thresholds and 70% of those overbaked adjustables trigger an effective doubling of mortgage payments for millions of homeowners. It has been said that the last year of the bear market is the one that really ravages you. Only when it’s too late, the commentators will note the drop in housing prices and suggest that we all run for the exits…just like they all did at the stock market bottom in early 2003. Unfortunately, many get out right at the bottom, when the pain is maximized. Avoid the hyper-borrowing techniques. I try to keep at least 20 to 25% equity in any property at any time. Thank you for visiting us at Smartstocks.com and enjoying our stock market simulation game over the past six years. Supporting Articles: New Home Sales Plunge 12% in November—Steepest Drop in 10 years http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/23/news/economy/home_sales/index.htm WSJ, 17 December 2004, “Are You Living In A Bubble?”, 8 December 2004, “Sizing Up the Threat of A Housing Bubble.”

Market Forecast: The Rest of 2005 And Beyond

The Ten Year Treasury Bond's yield backed down to 4.43%, from recent highs above 4.6%. However, the easy money of low interest rates will continue to fade. I am forecasting that this benchmark yield rises above the 5% level this year. It does matter to you--even if you've never touched a T-bond. Home mortgage rates move up nearly in tandem, and WILL continue to do so as we move to year end 2005. Watch for the 30 year fixed rate (currently just under 6%, up from 5.2% in early February) to cross through the 6.5% threshold and finish the year just shy of 7%. How does this effect the entire economy? Deeply. Just ask the British. Their central bank has been set on nearly double our benchmark rate, as they attempt to fight off inflation. However, most British mortgages are variable (they go up and down with the market), not fixed...so it's starting to chill the housing market as well as broader economic growth. Rising rates are particularly known for cooling consumer spending for lower-income folks (also most impacted by rising gas prices) and therefore GDP and stock market growth. As the refinancing boom spawned by 45 year lows in interest rates during 2002-2004 ends, we approach the mid-years of the interest rate cycle in the U.S. History tells us that there's always a bull market somewhere--and always a bear market somewhere. While I don't see a recession in 2005, we almost certainly will have a slowdown of some significance before Mr. Bush's successor (Hillary vs. Condi or Hillary vs. McCain) takes office in January 2009. U.S. Equities have started 2005 slowly, as they did 2004, but look about fairly valued right now, and should finish the year with a total return in the 10 to 20% range. The Morgan Stanley World Index (the two dozen developed countries) should fare even better than the U.S. as it did in both 2003 and 2004, so make sure your portfolio is not U.S. only. Countries with steep yield curves and favorable trade prospects stand to significantly outperform the U.S. and world averages. Last year, China cooled and Brazil roared. This year, watch Latin America and India to outperform the U.S. and world stock market indexes. Try one of the various ETF country index funds to diversify your portfolio. Foreign stocks can have higher dividend payments and move in ways less correlated with your U.S. stocks, so it will have a smoothing effect on your portfolio year after year. Often times, you can buy this non-U.S. exposure right here on our markets--without changing currencies. Observations: Oil is NOT in short supply. $58 a barrel, at least $15 of that is pure fluff that will not last. It's refining capacity that is in short supply, and that will take years to fix. We literally have hundreds of millions of barrels in excess crude sitting around unrefined. The Saudis are cutting crude prices, forcing others to follow, as you would expect in conjunction with a visit to President Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas. Oddly enough, we should see persistently high gas prices all year, and declining oil prices. Recommendations: Equally weight the U.S. to the world index (just over 50% of world value). Underweight Europe, Australia and especially Japan. Go with a light overweight on indexed emerging markets in South Asia (India, Thailand) and Latin American regional indexes. Don't miss out on Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, Colombia, Thailand, and India. Stay away from Venezuela (property rights and Cuba-esque dictatorship forming) and China (the world's greatest rights violator has a long way to go in terms of openness and investor protections...good growth but still too much risk) Be prepared for yawn after yawn of boring returns in the U.K. and Western Europe as they continue to stagnate, stagnate, stagnate. The growth and excitement is NOT Germany/France/Italy/Spain, which I place among the 3 most troubled markets in the world over the next few years. I call their anti-business governments the "Marxist Quartet." Poland, Hungary, Romania, Denmark and the Nordic countries are a little more interesting... but just a little. The world's second largest economy is Japan. You can't ignore it, but it's pretty much dead money. Japan's highly touted recovery is overhyped. You should not zero weight it (far too much deviation from the world index), but you can underweight Japan significantly for next year. It has a shrinking population, 100% dependence on imported commodities, which are rising in cost, and an awful financial system. Koizumi has done a good job of starting to heal the most screwed up banking system in the world, but he is too little too late (like the Governator in California.) EWJ is the ticker, but Japan overall will not likely perform as well as the World Indexes. India, Brazil, Russia and China are the 4 most important emerging markets in terms of GDP and GDP growth. I'm overweight on all but China, where communist dictatorships trounce investor rights all the time. Watch for Colombia (President Uribe's finally brought security after decades of chaos and civil war) and India (the regime of Prime Minister Singh is really committed to privatizing and growing the economy) to be the surprise gems of the developing world this year. Among the rich countries (where your benchmark ETFs will allocate most of your funds), watch for Europe to fall short of a slightly above average U.S. economy. Don't try picking individual stocks in India or Latin America--just stick with the index Exchange Traded Fund.

Expanded Rankings and Stock Beta Values

Smartstocks.com has changed its monthly user rankings from the Top 10 and Bottom 10 to the Top 100 and Bottom 100. This change will give stock market game users a more realistic view of the best and worst investors using the site. In addition, it will give more users the chance to see their name appear on the site - for better or for worse. Rankings will only be calculated for users who have logged into their account within the last 30 days, so be sure to login periodically to keep your account active. Due to the short nature of the ranking period (one month), traders who buy and sell a small number of more volatile stocks have a better chance to appear on the Top 100 or Bottom 100 lists. A stock’s Beta is a measure of its volatility with respect to the market. A Beta of 1 indicates the same volatility as the whole market. A Beta of 0.5 would indicate a stock that is only half as volatile as the market. Low Beta stocks typically have consistent earnings that are not affected by consumer confidence or the direction that the market is moving. Utility companies are generally low Beta stocks, since most people will continue to pay their Utility bill in good and bad times. A Beta of 2 would indicate a stock that is twice as volatile as the market. Technology and biotech companies generally have high Beta values, since a successful new product release could move the stock way up, and a failed product release could move the stock way down. The Beta for each stock is calculated using regression analysis, and is generally available on detailed stock quote sites. Buying volatile stocks in a stock market simulation game may be exhilarating, since there is no risk of real financial loss. However, real investors are generally more risk adverse and are willing to forego some potential gains in return for a lower potential loss. Most successful long term investors are successful by following the conventional investment advice to buy and hold a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds.

Current Portfolio Value

Amt: The number of shares you have of the ticker.

Beginning Monthly Portfolio Value: (Cash Available + Total Stock Value) as of the first day of the month before the market opened.

Cash Available: This is the amount of money you have, aside from the value of your stock holdings. Buying a stock reduces cash and selling a stock raises cash. We started you off with $1 million...aren't we generous?

Change: This number tells you the percent change for that ticker on that day. This points out which of your stocks are hot and which ones are not!

Current Portfolio Value: (Cash Available + Current Stock Value)

Current (Price and Value): This number shows the price it costs right now to buy one share of a stock. It changes most between 9:30am and 4:00pm EST. Value is equal to the price multiplied by the quantity of shares held.

Current Stock Value: The sum of (Price x Quantity) for all stocks in your portfolio.

Previous Close (Price and Value): Tells you the price of one share as of last night's closing bell (always 4:00pm EST)

Previous Stock Value: The sum of (Price x Quantity) for all stocks in your portfolio calculated at the previous close price.

Getting Started: If you know the ticker symbol of the stocks you wish to purchase then you can enter the ticker symbol into the field labeled: "Ticker", enter the number of shares of the stock you would like to purchase in the field labeled: "Number of shares", click the radio button labeled "Buy" and then click the "Complete Transaction" button. You may want to get a current stock quote before buying or selling to determine the cash value of the transaction (you cannot buy more shares than you have money for). To get a current stock quote, enter the ticker symbol of the stock in question into the "stock quote" field at the top of the frame and click "Go". If you do not know the ticker symbol of the company you wish to buy then you can enter the name of the company you wish to buy into the field labeled: "Ticker Lookup" and click "Go". For instance, if you entered "Microsoft" you would find that its ticker symbol is "MSFT". If you want some ideas of what stocks to buy you can look at some of our Sample Portfolios buy clicking the "Sample Portfolio" link on the left side-bar.

Groups: Groups consist of one or more users. Any user may create a group. The creator of a group can restrict who may join the group by requiring a password when users join the group, or allow anybody to join by not requiring a password. Groups could consist of friends, family members, a class of students, or others. You may join up to four groups. Group members are ranked each month according to the percentage return on their account. (See Rankings Below).

Name (Company Name): The name of the company you bought. Be patient smartstockers...not all of these are in the database yet.

Number of Shares: How many shares of stock that you wish to buy or sell.

Printing: To print your portfolio, right click over the portfolio section of the page and select Print.

Quotes: The current price in U.S. Dollars of one share of a stock. This price is changing throughout the day so always get a quote before you buy or sell.

Quantity: How many shares of stock in a particular company that you own.

Rankings: Rankings based on the percent return on your portfolio since the start of the month, and they are calculated at the end of each trading day. The method of calculating rankings is: [[(Current Portfolio Value - Beginning Monthly Portfolio Value)/Beginning Monthly Portfolio Value] * 100]. We calculate the Top 100 User's Ranking, Bottom 100 User's Ranking, Rankings in your Group(s), and Total Group Rankings. In addition, rankings are only calculated for accounts that have logged in within the last 30 days.

Ticker: A four or five letter symbol representing a company name. Example: YHOO = Yahoo!, Inc

Ticker Lookup: Don't have the tickers memorized? That's okay, most investors don't. This feature allows you to look up the name of any ticker by entering the company name. You're on your way!

Smartstocks.com Improvements

• All stocks in your portfolio should now show the correct stock name without any blank lines or inaccurate names.
• The totals at the bottom of the portfolio have been moved to improve readability, and a new total, Current Portfolio Value: has been added, which is simply the sum of your Cash Available and Current Stock Value.
• A new ranking calculation has been added: “My Group Rankings since Account Creation”. These rankings calculate the return of each group member’s account on their initial $1,000,000 portfolio. The monthly group rankings are still available. However, these new rankings will allow groups to more easily track their returns for periods of time longer than a month, which will better represent each user’s stock picking ability. As before, rankings will only be calculated for users who have logged into their account within the last 30 days, so be sure to login periodically to keep your account rankings up to date.

Overview

Overview

Now more than ever, schools are looking for ways to meet higher education standards while working within tighter budgets. To meet this challenge, schools are seeking more effective educational tools that both motivate students and support teachers in building lifelong learning skills.

One tool that meets these requirements in an innovative yet time tested way is The Stock Market Game™ program. Since 1977, the program has given educators a way to improve the learning experience in thousands of classrooms. Teachers have successfully used The Stock Market Game™ program to enliven core academic subjects — including Math, Social Studies, and Language Arts — and research has shown there's no better way to learn the importance of saving and investing. The Stock Market Game™ program offers a vast library of learning materials correlated to national voluntary and state educational standards in Math, Business Education, Economics, English/Language Arts, Technology, Social Studies and Family and Consumer Sciences. This resource has inspired many teachers to incorporate the program into classes in creative ways — at all levels, from fourth grade to college, all across the curriculum. The program also teaches and reinforces these essential skills and concepts: Critical thinking Decision-making Cooperation and communication Independent research Saving and investing Students use real internet research and news updates, making the simulation an even better mirror of the real marketplace. While the competitive gameplay creates student excitement, the educational experience delivers the biggest impact. An Innovative Way to Learn Students who participate in the The Stock Market Game™ program learn more than investing. As they progress, they learn core academic concepts and skills that can help them succeed in the classroom — and in life. Starting with a virtual cash account of $100,000, students strive to create the best-performing portfolio using a live trading simulation. They work together in teams, practicing leadership, organization, negotiation, and cooperation as they compete for the top spot. The setup is engaging, and the learning is a natural part of the experience. In building a portfolio, students research and evaluate stocks, and make decisions based on what they've learned. Teams trade common stocks and mutual funds from the NYSE, Nasdaq and AMEX exchanges; earn interest on cash balances; pay interest if buying on margin and pay a commission on all trades. To determine why certain stocks perform the way they do, or why the broader market has moved up or down, they need to understand how the economy works, and to calculate their returns they need to do the math. Since 1977, more than 10 million students have participated in The Stock Market Game™ program, and more classrooms sign on every year. Today the program is available in all 50 states and worldwide. Teachers have discovered that The Stock Market Game™ program actually boosts attendance and reduces dropout rates. Students who participate in the program gain confidence and build self-esteem. They have fun — and learn more effectively as they see how their classroom lessons apply to the real world. What students gain from The Stock Market Game™ program is a remarkable experience — and even more important, an education for life. The program is made possible by the support of more than 650 securities firms, combined with essential grassroots support in schools and communities. It is the only stock market simulation supported by the New York Stock Exchange. The Stock Market Game™ is a trademark of the Foundation for Investor Education, a nonprofit organization dedicated to developing and providing learning resources for investors of all ages, raising the level of investor awareness in the U.S., supporting research programs, and advocating the advancement of investor education.

GameTech Announces Extension of Stock Buy Back

RENO, Nev., Sept 23, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- GameTech International, Inc. ("GameTech" or the "Company") Sponsored by:
(GMTC:

gametech international inc com

GMTC 3.00, +0.12, +4.2%) , a leading designer, developer and marketer of electronic bingo equipment, bingo systems and video lottery terminals, today announced that its board of directors has authorized an extension until December 31, 2008 of the stock repurchase program previously announced in September 2007. The stock repurchase program originally allowed for the repurchase of up to $5.0 million of the Company's common stock over a one year period and the extension will retain that original cumulative dollar limitation. Pursuant to the Company's previously announced stock repurchase plan, the Company has repurchased to date a total of 576,185 shares at a combined cost of approximately $3.6 million. This repurchase amount represents 4.6% of the fully diluted shares outstanding as of July 31, 2008. The actual number and timing of subsequent share repurchases will be subject to market conditions and applicable SEC rules.

GameTech International, Inc. is in the business of designing, manufacturing, and marketing computerized bingo and gaming equipment, systems, and services. Under the GameTech(R) brand the Company provides electronic bingo systems and equipment. Under the Summit Gaming(TM) brand the Company provides video lottery terminals and slot machine gaming devices. The Company also provides other gaming related equipment and services. GameTech International, Inc. is an innovator in advanced wireless gaming applications and devices as well as software and content for traditional slot machine games. GameTech International, Inc. serves customers in 41 U.S. States, Canada, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Philippines, and the United Kingdom. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Reno, Nevada.

Such forward-looking statements include the final amount that is expended on share repurchases, the actual number of shares of common stock repurchased, changes in the market price of the Company's common shares of stock. GameTech cautions that these statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected by the forward-looking statements contained herein. Such factors include change in cash availability to the Company, our dependence on the bingo and video lottery terminal businesses, risks associated with rapid technological change, our ability to retain customers and secure new customers, and other factors disclosed in documents filed by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company's most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release, and we undertake no obligation to update such statements.

SOURCE GameTech International, Inc.